The Economics of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

The increase is modest. A continuation of currently forecast levels of growth would mean that NZ GDP would be 47% higher by 2030 without TPPA, versus 47.9% with TPPA.

The commentary found that the standard of documentation of the modelling is dreadfully inadequate — just 20 pages of text in the published report.

Most of New Zealand’s agricultural exports are commodities and exporters are in a relatively weak position in the supply chain, so tariff reductions are more likely to increase the margins of powerful actors in the supply chain (typically processors or retailers).

The World Bank recently released a modelling analysis which predicts a growth in GDP of around 1.1% across the twelve TPPA nations and 2–3% for New Zealand by 2030. The modelling suggests that gains from TPP are likely to be slow to materialise and that “despite overall long term gains, member countries could experience sizeable adjustment costs in the short run.”

The modelling shows an increase of 0.77% of GDP by 2025 for New Zealand, with an increase in exports, but a small decline in employment as a result of the TPPA and increased levels of income inequality.

Agriculture and Trade Rules

The first thing to know about America and free trade is that American politicians and officials are hypocrites and corrupt liars when it comes to free trade. They preach free trade and yet regularly oppose proper free trade deals like those proposed by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that would actually reduce trade barriers, remove subsidies and make it easier to trade with America. (Interest.co.nz)

Implications of TPPA for New Zealand’s value chains

Improvements in areas such as customs, non-tariff barriers and food safety processes will reduce the cost of doing business and encourage greater participation in regional production networks. There is also an untested but potentially path-breaking new chapter on ‘Regulatory Coherence’ covering the role of Regulatory Impact Analysis, which can be important in minimising nontariff barriers over time. So TPP will remove some of the grit in the wheels of Asia-Pacific supply chains. This will lower transaction costs for Kiwi firms, again boosting competitiveness and opening new avenues. But such analysis focuses superficially on the ease-of-doing business rather than on far more complicated issues such as how companies develop specialised roles and relationships in value chains. (NZIER)

Economic implications of restraints on government powers to regulate

We note there has been discussion about … whether implementation should be delayed until the international legal challenges to Australia’s plain packaging legislation are completed. We note these challenges are proceeding extremely slowly. In our view, it is in the interests of the tobacco industry and others that wish to discourage states from implementing plain packaging to prolong these cases indefinitely and to continue to discourage the implementation of plain packaging until these cases are (if ever) resolved.

The TPPA: A flawed model for the 21st century

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